Home Prices Are Flat in Some Metros—So Why Does Affordability Still Feel Worse?

The market can stabilize without getting affordable

In housing, “flat” is not the same thing as “affordable.” A year with muted price growth can still leave monthly payments elevated if borrowing costs stay high, incomes don’t catch up, and the homes that do come to market aren’t priced for typical first-time buyers. That’s the common thread across several metro snapshots and national measures released in late January 2026.

What the latest metro data says

Realtor.com highlighted six major metros where median list prices were essentially unchanged from December 2024 to December 2025, including New York, Charlotte, Atlanta, Buffalo, Indianapolis, and Columbus. That’s a sign of cooling, but it doesn’t automatically restore entry-level affordability. [realtor.com]

A separate Zillow-based view summarized by Fast Company shows U.S. home prices up just 0.1% year over year from December 2024 to December 2025. Even if the pace slows dramatically, the level of prices (and therefore payments) can remain historically high. [fastcompany.com]

The supply problem: tight inventory and who new homes are built for

In some markets, inventory is improving from very low levels—but that doesn’t automatically mean accessible choices at the entry level. In Seattle, Axios reported active listings up 23% year over year while prices were down about 2% for a third straight month. Yet the story emphasized that typical first-time buyers still face a large income hurdle to buy a typical home. [axios.com]

Even where building is relatively strong, the mix matters. A Realtor.com story (citing a Georgetown University Center on Poverty and Inequality study) found that six major metros beat national averages for homebuilding, but supply was dominated by larger owner-occupied homes and small apartments priced for higher earners—patterns that can leave the starter-home gap intact. [realtor.com]

Filtering up and the broken housing ladder

Affordability isn’t only about how many homes exist—it’s also about who ends up in them. California YIMBY summarized research arguing that in many constrained metros, homes can “filter up” on resale to higher-income households when new supply is limited. In roughly 38 of 75 major metros studied, resales went to higher-income residents than prior occupants, consistent with scarcity pushing buyers to compete for aging stock. [cayimby.org]

What to watch next

Three signposts will matter most in early 2026:

• **Entry-level inventory**: are more smaller, lower-priced listings coming online, or is inventory growth concentrated at higher price tiers?
• **Mortgage rates**: even modest moves can swing payments and qualification thresholds quickly.
• **New-construction mix**: more units help, but the affordability impact depends on whether marginal units are reachable for median-income households.

Until those indicators improve together, affordability can remain strained even in a market that looks stable on paper.