Early Signs of U.S. Home Price Softening: Why Some Metros Are Down While Others Keep Rising

What the latest national indicators are signaling

The spring housing season is starting with mixed but slightly more buyer-friendly signals: mortgage rates have eased from recent highs, and the flow of homes for sale is improving. Realtor.com reported that new listings rebounded strongly after the Easter holiday slowdown, while active inventory is now up year over year—giving shoppers more selection than earlier in the cycle. [realtor.com]

At the same time, the national home-price picture looks like it’s shifting from “still rising everywhere” to a more patchwork map. Fannie Mae’s Home Price Index showed national single-family prices up 2.8% year over year for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, but that’s a pace consistent with cooling from the pandemic-era surge. [fanniemae.com]

Where prices are slipping—and why it’s concentrated

A ResiClub analysis of the Zillow Home Value Index found that 89 of the 300 largest metro housing markets posted year-over-year home price declines from March 2025 to March 2026, while 211 still posted gains—an important reminder that “the housing market” is increasingly local. [resiclubanalytics.com]

ResiClub also points to geography: many of the softer markets are concentrated in Sun Belt regions (including parts of the Gulf Coast and Mountain West), where buyers have regained leverage as inventory has rebuilt and new-home supply has been more abundant. [resiclubanalytics.com]

Why some regions are still firm

Even with more resale supply hitting the market nationally, some regions remain tighter than pre-pandemic norms. ResiClub notes that pockets of the Northeast and Midwest where active inventory remains well below 2019 levels are still seeing year-over-year price gains. [resiclubanalytics.com]

In these markets, the “choice set” for buyers can still be limited, which tends to keep competition—and prices—firmer, even if broader national measures show moderation.

What to watch into late spring and summer

If the inventory rebound persists, the next question is whether demand keeps up. HousingWire’s weekly pending sales snapshot shows a seasonal rebound from the Easter-impacted week, and it also highlights how sensitive demand can be to where mortgage rates sit (with the sub-6.25% area described as a recent "sweet spot"). [housingwire.com]

For buyers and sellers, the near-term tells will be:

• **New listings:** whether the post-holiday jump turns into a sustained spring trend [realtor.com]
• **Pending sales:** whether weekly improvements translate into closed sales in the next 30–60 days [housingwire.com]
• **New construction competition:** where builders can offer incentives that pressure resale pricing, especially in higher-supply Sun Belt markets [resiclubanalytics.com]

Overall, the most practical way to read 2026 so far is as a rebalancing: national price growth continues, but at a slower pace, and the number of metros with flat-to-down readings is large enough to matter—particularly where supply has finally come back.