Existing-home sales slump to a 16-year low as 7%+ mortgage rates deepen the housing standoff

Existing-home sales hit a new trough

The latest existing-home sales report shows the resale market is still grinding lower. In October 2026, existing-home sales fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.75 million, down 5.5% from September and down 8.8% from a year earlier — the slowest pace since August 2010. [nar.realtor] [eyeonhousing.org]

Even with fewer transactions, prices haven’t meaningfully reset at the national level. The median existing-home sales price was $416,700, up 0.4% year over year. [nar.realtor] [eyeonhousing.org]

Inventory is improving, but from a low base

One of the more important shifts is on the supply side. Unsold inventory rose to 1.59 million homes in October, which works out to a 5.1-month supply at the current sales pace — the highest months’ supply since November 2015. [nar.realtor] [eyeonhousing.org]

Market tempo is also slowing: homes spent a median of 35 days on the market in October. [eyeonhousing.org]

The core problem: monthly payments

Rates are doing most of the damage. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.11% as of November 12, 2026. [freddiemac.com]

That translates into a major payment shock for anyone who has to finance today’s prices. Realtor.com estimates a typical current mortgage holder pays roughly $1,300 per month in principal and interest, while buying a median-priced home today would require about $2,468 — roughly $1,100 more, an 85.3% increase. [realtor.com]

This is the lock-in effect in practice: would-be move-up sellers often need a compelling life reason to move, because the same house (or even a similar one) can mean a dramatically higher monthly payment.

Who’s still buying

The mix of buyers helps explain why prices can stay firm even as transactions sag. In October, first-time buyers represented 29% of purchases, while all-cash buyers accounted for 29% of transactions. [eyeonhousing.org]

Cash buyers aren’t as exposed to rates, and many financed buyers are higher-income households that can absorb the payment increase — leaving affordability-constrained buyers on the sidelines.

What to watch into winter

Three near-term indicators matter most:

• **Inventory and months’ supply:** A sustained move higher can create more negotiating leverage for buyers, even if it doesn’t produce big headline price declines. [nar.realtor]
• **Time on market:** If median days on market keeps rising, expect more price cuts and seller concessions, especially in rate-sensitive metros. [eyeonhousing.org]
• **Mortgage rates:** Even small changes can materially shift payments at today’s prices, but the market likely needs a clearer move below 7% to thaw meaningfully. [freddiemac.com]

For now, the resale market looks less like a classic downturn and more like a stalemate: affordability is strained for buyers, and the best listings stay scarce because many owners don’t want to surrender their existing mortgage rate.