Why the Frozen Housing Market Is Dragging on Home Depot, Remodel Demand, and 2026 Turnover

What “frozen turnover” means (and why it matters)

The clearest sign the housing market is still “frozen” isn’t just price direction — it’s the lack of movement. Redfin’s turnover analysis found that just 28 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands in the first nine months of 2025, the lowest rate in decades. [redfin.com]

That matters because transactions are a demand engine. When a home sells, it often triggers a predictable chain: inspections, repairs, paint, flooring, appliance upgrades, and contractor work. When sales volume stalls, that entire transaction-linked spend pool shrinks — even if many existing homeowners are still employed and sitting on equity.

What earnings coverage says about homeowner behavior

Recent coverage of Home Depot’s quarter emphasizes that sales were down year over year and customer transactions declined, while larger discretionary remodel activity remains under pressure. [axios.com]

Multiple outlets also describe a shift in consumer behavior: more maintenance and smaller repairs, fewer large elective projects while homeowners wait for affordability to improve. [investopedia.com]

This matters for housing-adjacent businesses because DIY and contractor demand are not only driven by home age and wear-and-tear; they’re also driven by moves, renovations immediately after purchase, and seller prep. Fewer closings can mean fewer of those “event-driven” projects.

Mortgage rates are lower — but affordability is still tight

Rates have improved versus recent highs, but they remain high enough to keep payment shock front and center. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% as of 2026-02-05. [freddiemac.com]

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending 2026-02-20 reported the average contract rate for a conforming 30-year fixed at 6.09%, and purchase applications fell 5% week over week. [mba.org]

In practice, “low-6%” mortgage rates may help at the margin, but they don’t automatically restart turnover if home prices remain elevated and many existing owners are anchored to much lower legacy mortgage rates.

What to watch into spring 2026

A thaw would likely show up first in leading indicators: purchase-mortgage applications, new listings, and early-spring pending sales. For now, the weekly application data is mixed: purchase demand can be higher than a year earlier yet still soft week to week. [mba.org]

For housing-adjacent businesses, the key question is mix: will spending remain concentrated in smaller repairs, or will a sustained pickup in transactions bring back the bigger move-related projects that drive outsized ticket sizes? Home Depot’s commentary suggests pressure may persist near term. [axios.com]