Existing-Home Sales Hit a 14-Month Low as Inventory Climbs: What High Rates Mean for Fall 2026

What the latest existing-home sales report showed

Existing-home sales fell again in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, down 2.0% from July and down 1.2% from a year earlier. [nar.realtor]

National prices are still rising year over year, but only modestly: the median existing-home price across all housing types was $429,100 in August, up 1.6% from a year earlier. [nar.realtor]

Mortgage rates remain the biggest constraint on monthly payments. AP reported the average 30-year fixed rate was 6.76% for the week ending September 10, 2026, the highest level in more than 14 months. [apnews.com]

Inventory and months’ supply are rising—why that matters

Inventory improved even as sales slowed. NAR reported total housing inventory at 1.62 million units in August, up 3.2% from July and up 5.9% year over year; it was the first time since November 2019 that inventory exceeded 1.6 million units. [nar.realtor]

Because closings are slower, months’ supply rose to 4.9 months (up from 4.6 months in July). NAR described 4.9 months as the highest level in over ten years—a shift that often shows up in the form of longer days on market, more concessions, and more price sensitivity from buyers. [nar.realtor]

Eye On Housing (NAHB) also highlighted the 4.9-month supply reading and described it as the highest since November 2015. [eyeonhousing.org]

A split market by price tier

Higher rates don’t hit every buyer the same way. Inman highlighted a widening gap in activity: homes under $250,000 saw sales down 10% year over year, while sales of homes priced above $1 million rose 4%. [inman.com]

That split aligns with financing sensitivity. NAR reported cash sales were 27% of transactions in August, and segments that rely more on mortgages tend to react faster when rates move higher. [nar.realtor]

What to watch next

To gauge whether the next phase is broader price cooling or simply a slower market at high payment levels, watch these near-term signals:

• **Rates and weekly volatility:** pending activity often reacts quickly to rate spikes. [apnews.com]
• **New listings vs pendings:** supply helps buyers most when new listings outpace new contract signings consistently.
• **Months’ supply, days on market, and concessions:** these are the early indicators of shifting leverage. [nar.realtor]

Bottom line: buyers are getting more choices, but mortgage-rate-driven affordability is still the gatekeeper—so expect continued micro-markets, not one uniform national story.