U.S. Home Prices Pick Up Again—But Regional Divergence Is Now the Main Story

What the latest national indexes showed

Two of the most-followed home-price gauges ended 2025 with the same broad message: prices rose again in November, but the year-over-year pace is far calmer than the recent boom years.

**FHFA (purchase-only, conforming loans)** reported U.S. house prices rose **0.6% month over month in November** and were up **1.9% year over year** (November 2024 to November 2025). FHFA also flagged meaningful regional variation, including an annual decline in the Pacific division. [housingwire.com]

**Case-Shiller (repeat-sales, reported with a lag)** showed the seasonally adjusted national index up **0.4% month over month** and **1.4% year over year** in November. [advisorperspectives.com]

Because the two indexes cover different transaction sets and use different methods, their levels and growth rates won’t match perfectly. But when both are pointing to modest annual gains alongside renewed monthly increases, it supports a “moving, but uneven” market narrative.

Where price gains are concentrating

The latest metro detail shows strength clustering in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. Realtor.com’s summary of the Case-Shiller 20-city results highlighted **Chicago (+5.7%)** and **New York (+5.0%)** as leading year-over-year gainers for November. [realtor.com]

FHFA’s regional view also showed the **East North Central division** posting the strongest annual increase at **+5.1%**. [housingwire.com]

A common thread in markets that keep appreciating: resale supply that stays tight enough to limit buyer choice, even when affordability is stretched.

Where prices are stalling or slipping

Several Sun Belt and Western metros that led earlier in the cycle now look softer. Realtor.com noted that **Tampa (-3.9%)**, **Phoenix (-1.4%)**, **Dallas (-1.4%)**, and **Miami (-1.0%)** were down year over year in the Case-Shiller 20-city set. [realtor.com]

FHFA’s report adds a broader regional confirmation: the **Pacific division** was **-0.4% year over year** and the **Mountain division** was **-0.1% year over year**. [housingwire.com]

When a market shifts from steady gains to flat or negative year-over-year readings, it doesn’t automatically mean a crash—but it often coincides with more price cuts, longer days on market, and a wider spread between list prices and closed-sale outcomes.

Practical implications for 2026 underwriting and strategy

For buyers, sellers, lenders, and investors, the actionable change isn’t “prices are up” or “prices are down.” It’s that **the range of outcomes across metros is widening**.

• **Underwrite locally:** Lean harder on neighborhood-level comps and current absorption, not just national indexes.
• **Expect more negotiation in cooling metros:** Concessions can rise even when published indexes still show slight gains.
• **Track inventory closely:** Where supply remains constrained, prices can keep inching up despite rate pressure.

Bottom line: November’s data supports a modest reacceleration in monthly pricing, but the defining story heading into 2026 is regional divergence—and the “right” housing narrative depends on the ZIP code.