U.S. Home Prices Are Still Rising—But Inflation Is Winning, and Metro Gaps Are Growing

What July’s national home-price data actually says

The latest July readings from the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller indexes show U.S. home prices are still rising in nominal terms. The national index posted roughly a 1.9% year-over-year gain, a slight acceleration from June. [housingwire.com] [aol.com]

That’s the headline—but it’s not the whole story. When overall appreciation is modest, small differences in inventory, demand, and local affordability can swing metros in very different directions.

Real prices: why inflation-adjusted values keep falling

Even with nominal appreciation, inflation has been running faster. Multiple write-ups of the July release noted inflation around 3.4% year over year—well above the ~1.9% national home-price gain—so inflation-adjusted (real) values continued to decline. [rismedia.com] [aol.com]

RISMedia framed July as another month in a long streak of real declines (inflation beating nominal home-price growth), which helps explain why affordability can stay tight even in a low-appreciation environment. [rismedia.com]

Metro divergence: where prices are still accelerating—and where they’re slipping

The national number hides a widening spread across metros. In the 20-city Case-Shiller breakdown, Chicago led annual gains at 6.9%, with New York (5.8%) and Cleveland (4.2%) also among the leaders. [aol.com] [housingwire.com]

At the other end, Seattle recorded the steepest year-over-year decline at -1.6% in the 20-city set, illustrating how some higher-cost Western markets are already seeing softer price trends. [housingwire.com] [aol.com]

A separate metro snapshot using Zillow Home Value Index data similarly found modest national appreciation (up 1.3% year over year from August 2025 to August 2026) alongside meaningful metro-to-metro variation. [fastcompany.com]

The listings signal: more sellers are cutting asking prices

Repeat-sales indexes like Case-Shiller are backward-looking and based on closed transactions. But the live listings market can show shifts in leverage earlier—especially when more homes compete for buyers’ attention.

Barron’s reported that 20.8% of sellers cut their asking price in September, the highest share since 2018. [barrons.com]

It’s possible for price cuts to rise even while repeat-sales measures remain positive: sellers can start high, then reduce to meet the market, while closed-sale indexes still reflect earlier contract activity and compositional effects.

How to use this info if you’re buying or selling

**If you’re buying:** In a slow-growth environment, “overpaying” matters more than it did in a fast-rising market. Pay extra attention to: days on market, recent comparable sales, and how many similar listings are sitting nearby.

**If you’re selling:** Pricing to today’s competition matters more than pricing to last spring’s best comp. Rising price-cut rates are a reminder that buyers are getting more selective in many markets, and the first signal is often an adjustment in list price.

**Bottom line:** U.S. home prices are still rising in nominal terms, but inflation continues to outpace appreciation and metro divergence is widening—making local conditions the main story heading into late 2026.