U.S. real home prices hit records, but Zillow’s forecast goes flat—what it means for 2026 buyers

Record real prices, slower momentum

A core tension in today’s market is that inflation-adjusted ("real") home values can be at or near record highs, even while the *next* year’s outlook turns more cautious. That’s exactly the setup going into late April 2026: affordability is stretched, and price growth is cooling rather than accelerating.

Zillow’s national forecast: flat, with big local differences

Zillow’s latest 12-month forecast (based on the Zillow Home Value Index) projects that U.S. home prices will shift **+0.0% between March 2026 and March 2027**—a mild downward revision from the prior month’s +0.5% call. [fastcompany.com]

The important detail is the dispersion. Among large metros, Zillow’s forecast shows some of the biggest gains concentrated in parts of the Midwest and Northeast (for example, Syracuse, NY at +5.0% and Rockford, IL at +4.5%). [fastcompany.com]

On the downside, Zillow’s "largest declines" list includes multiple Louisiana and Texas markets—most notably **Austin, TX (-4.6%)**, plus Beaumont, TX (-3.4%), Corpus Christi, TX (-2.7%), and San Antonio, TX (-2.6%). [fastcompany.com]

Mortgage rates: the affordability lever that won’t go away

Even if home prices stop rising, payments don’t ease meaningfully unless financing costs come down. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average **30-year fixed rate was 6.23% as of April 23, 2026**. [freddiemac.com]

Rates at this level keep many buyers payment-constrained and reinforce the "rate lock" dynamic—homeowners with much lower existing mortgages stay put, which can keep resale inventory tight in many neighborhoods.

A local example: when a market stays flat anyway

The Zillow map is a reminder that the national picture can hide neighborhood-level differences. In the Chicago suburbs, one hyperlocal example is Forest Park, Illinois: a sponsored local analysis notes that nearby areas like River Forest and Oak Park saw sharp median price gains in 2024, while Forest Park’s pricing has been closer to flat and listing prices in ZIP 60130 are described as barely changed or slightly lower year over year. It also notes the median days on market fell sharply versus March 2025. [forestparkreview.com]

That type of micro-divergence is more common in 2026 because buyer pools are narrower and more rate-sensitive—so a small shift in who’s buying (families vs downsizers, for example) can matter more than it did during the pandemic-era surge.

What to watch next (and how to use it)

If you’re trying to make sense of conflicting headlines—"record highs" vs "forecasts cut"—focus on three weekly signals:

• **Mortgage rates:** small moves can change monthly affordability, especially at today’s price levels.
• **Inventory and price cuts in your metro:** softer markets typically show it first in days on market and seller concessions.
• **Forecast revisions:** Zillow’s forecast is a useful ‘directional’ tool, but it can shift month-to-month as financing and supply change.

Bottom line

The market doesn’t have to crash for affordability to stay strained. A flat-to-slightly-up national price path still leaves many households priced out—especially in expensive coastal metros—while markets with rising supply can see modest declines without broader contagion. The takeaway for buyers and sellers is simple: the best "market" is increasingly your ZIP code, not the national average.