U.S. Home Prices Are Flattening Nationally—But Metro-Level Winners and Losers Are Growing

The national headline: price growth is barely positive

Two fresh readings point to the same conclusion: national home-price growth is losing steam. Redfin reports U.S. prices inched up just 0.1% month over month in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the third straight month of minimal gains [consumeraffairs.com]. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index also showed prices essentially unchanged in February, with a 1.7% increase from a year earlier [fhfa.gov].

The key takeaway for readers: ‘flat’ doesn’t mean ‘stable everywhere.’ It means the average is masking a wider spread of local outcomes.

Where prices are slipping: supply-heavy and post-boom markets

Redfin’s March release notes that prices fell in 13 major metros on a seasonally adjusted basis [redfin.com]. Texas shows up repeatedly in local coverage built on Redfin data: one report says Austin’s home prices fell 2% from March 2025 to March 2026 (median home value about $530,000), while San Antonio was down 3.3% year over year (median about $260,000) [mysanantonio.com].

Houston is a clean example of how supply can change the pricing power equation. One market write-up notes Houston had the most active listings of any metro in March (over 40,000 listings) and that local sales prices fell even as the national median ticked up [therealdeal.com].

Why some markets still hold up

Even with higher borrowing costs, not every region is in the same place on the supply cycle. Markets with tighter resale inventory or steadier demand can keep prices inching higher, while areas that added more listings (or are working through post-boom ‘mean reversion’) see more negotiating room and more price sensitivity to rates.

Construction is improving, but it’s not a quick fix

New supply is also uneven. March construction data showed total housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million (+10.8% vs. February), with single-family starts up 9.7% month over month and topping 1 million for the first time in more than a year [realtor.com]. But permits declined, which is a meaningful caution flag for forward supply [realtor.com].

How to use this split if you’re buying or selling

For buyers: focus on active listings, days on market, and the share of homes with price cuts in your specific metro, not just the national print. In markets where inventory is building, expect more negotiation leverage.

For sellers: pricing close to market is becoming more important than ‘test-the-market’ list prices, especially in metros with rising supply.

For both: rate swings can change monthly demand quickly, so watch weekly mortgage-rate moves as closely as monthly price indices [freddiemac.com].