Mixed Signals in U.S. Home Prices: National Growth Slows as More Metros Turn Negative

What the national indexes are saying now

Two widely watched measures of U.S. home prices are painting a similar headline: growth has cooled to a near standstill on a monthly basis, even though year-over-year increases remain positive.

The FHFA House Price Index reported U.S. house prices were unchanged in February (seasonally adjusted), but still up 1.7% compared with February 2025. FHFA also noted January’s monthly change was revised upward to 0.2%. [fhfa.gov]

Case-Shiller is telling a comparable story on annual growth: the National Index was up 0.7% year over year in February, down from 0.8% in January. HousingWire’s write-up also noted that inflation has been outpacing home price appreciation for multiple months, which can translate into negative “real” returns even when nominal prices are slightly higher. [housingwire.com]

Metro divergence: where prices are falling vs. rising

The bigger shift is happening below the national average. Metro results are increasingly split between markets with still-tight supply and markets that are working through higher inventory and weaker demand.

In the February Case-Shiller metro data, Denver posted a 2.2% year-over-year decline, edging out Tampa’s 2.1% decline and making Denver the weakest major market in the index. Realtor.com reported that more than half of major U.S. metros posted annual price declines in February, signaling that the slowdown has broadened beyond its earlier Sun Belt footprint. [realtor.com]

On the other side of the ledger, Chicago led the Case-Shiller metros with 5.0% year-over-year growth (with New York and Cleveland also among the stronger gainers). [realtor.com]

Redfin’s repeat-sales index adds context on breadth: it found U.S. prices rose just 0.1% month over month (seasonally adjusted) in February, with prices falling in 16 major metros and rising in others—another sign that national “flatness” is masking meaningful local movement. [redfin.com]

Why this is happening

Three forces show up repeatedly across the reporting:

1) **Affordability pressure from rates.** Even small rate changes can meaningfully alter monthly payments, which tends to reduce the pool of qualified buyers and slow price growth.

2) **Inventory is rebuilding unevenly.** Some metros have more new supply, more listings, or more normal turnover—those places are where price cuts and longer days-on-market tend to show up first.

3) **Lagged index timing.** Case-Shiller is a three-month moving average and is released with a delay, so February readings largely reflect deals negotiated earlier. That means turning points in spring demand may not show up in repeat-sales indexes until later. [realtor.com]

What to watch next (practical signals)

If you’re trying to gauge whether your local market is still appreciating or starting to slide, focus on the “fast” indicators:

• **Inventory and months’ supply**: rising supply usually precedes softer pricing.
• **Days on market and concessions**: watch for increasing time-to-contract and more seller credits/price cuts.
• **Rate volatility**: even if rates aren’t surging, choppy weekly moves can freeze buyer decision-making.

Bottom line: the national market looks like it’s moving sideways, but the metro map is fragmenting. For buyers, that can mean more negotiating leverage in cooling markets; for sellers, it raises the importance of realistic pricing and timing based on local competition, not national headlines. [redfin.com]